Some Random Investment Thoughts About Moves I Didn’t Make

by Evan

Recently, I have had some random thoughts about investments I didn’t make, and they are really bothering me.  I am not the type to dwell on should haves, could haves or would haves, but for some reason these three investments have been on my mind and I can’t shake my annoyance with myself.

Not Investing in Undervalued Dividend Stocks in 2017

Earlier this year I had to take a break from my monthly investment in undervalued dividend growth stocks.  I went into more detail in a previous post, but the long and short of it is that I had a few option trades that went sideways on me.  It felt irresponsible to continue to invest without  first digging out of those trades.

Not only do I enjoy the stock screen I put together every month, my results over the years have been pretty good.  It just annoys me that everything is on hold, and has been for months.

Being Completely Wrong on Facebook

It was only a few years ago when I proclaimed that I didn’t get they hype surrounded about the Facebook IPO.  Guess the bad thing about having a blog, is the trail that evidence left behind about being completely and utterly wrong.  Just how wrong was I? Very.

What’s 294% between friends?  Think there is a couple of reasons why missing this trade annoys me.

The first and foremost was ignoring the market stranglehold they had/have.  Everyone I know minus about 7 people have at least a facebook or instagram account – if not both.  I like buying companies where I understand the model, and frankly the facebook model is as simple as they come.  People use it and they get very targeted ads analogous to the basic google search model.

The second reason I am annoyed is I let my obsession with current valuation get in my way of seeing point number 1, above.  In my original post from 2012 I wrote,

What I do see is a company that is being valued at 75 to 100 times its earnings which my gut screams is lunacy in toady’s market.

Ugh. I want to smack 2012 Evan upside the head.  Today’s Facebook P/E? 38 with a stock price that 294% higher!  Yes, a P/E that high would make most value investors cringe, but the takeaway is that they are growing into their stock price.

The last reason I am pissed I didn’t buy some facebook way back when may be a a combination of the first two reasons, but feels like something more.  I am pissed for myself in the future.  It is going to be 2034 and I’ll be having a conversation with my 24 year old son and I can just seem him saying “you could have bought facebook at what price? and you didn’t because why?”

Taking a Flier on Bitcoin

Bitcoin is an awfully complicated investment that I actually do not believe most people understand.   On the one hand it can be used as a way to exchange value for goods or services much like our current currency system today.  However, if no one actually accepts bitcoins this would be challenged.  Second, it can be used as a storage of value similar to gold.  However, all this would need is one hack to destroy any faith in the system.  I am not saying either of these things are going to happen, I am just saying that these two topics are very complicated especially when taken against the backdrop of countries losing their monopoly on currency.

So why I am upset I didn’t take invest in any Bitcoins? Because it would have been such an easy purchase a few years back.

A few hundred dollar purchase which have meant nothing to me could be worth tens of thousands. It bothers me because I rarely take a flier on such things.  The bitcoin run up, similar to facebook, are instances me drawing a line in the sand and being completely wrong.


Are there any investments you are annoyed you didn’t make?

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1 comment

Dividend Portfolio June 23, 2017 - 12:30 pm

Yea, as the saying goes, it’s no use crying over spilt milk. I beat myself up for not investing sooner when I was young. I also missed the Facebook and Bitcom phenomenon. Hindsight is 20-20, and so you can only make the best decisions for you under the circumstances.

What I’m struggling with now is whether I should invest in P2P lending like lending club and, also, whether I should also invest in Bitcoin. At least with Bitcoin, I still don’t understand it, so it’s harder for me to invest in it.


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